|
pm530
|
 |
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2009, 01:12:52 AM » |
|
NFL ADDITIONAL
Week 8
Refer to post #1 for Matchup Links to more trends/stats *
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 1
1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHICAGO
Cleveland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 12 games at home
1:00 PM
DENVER vs. BALTIMORE
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BUFFALO
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games
1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
NY Jets are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games
1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games
NY Giants are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Dallas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DETROIT
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oakland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
4:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Carolina
4:15 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Monday, November 2
8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints [ESPN | 8:35 PM ET]
Falcons: The Falcons rank eighth in scoring defense giving up an average of 19 points per game. But Atlanta will have to be at its best to hold the Saints, who are averaging an NFL-best 39.7 points per contest and are ahead of pace to break the Patriots’ single-season scoring record set two years ago. Atlanta has failed to cover in eight of the past 12 times it has been a road underdog. Michael Turner is averaging 3.4 yards per carry, more than a yard less than he averaged a year ago when he ranked second in the league with 1,699 yards rushing. Matt Ryan has thrown four interceptions the past two games, the most he’s thrown during any two-game stretch of his two-year NFL career. This is the highest over/under of the season. The last time these two teams scored more than a combined 54 points was 2005.
The Under is 38-17-1 in Atlanta’s last 56 road contests.
The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Week 8 games.
Key Injuries - Running backs Jerious Norwood (hip) is doubtful.
Running back Jason Snelling (hamstring) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (Side of the Day)
Saints (-11.5, O/U 54.5): New Orleans has beaten Atlanta in five of its last six meetings, covering the spread four times. So far this has been the Saints’ best team ever. New Orleans is 6-0 straight-up and against the spread. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game. They have covered the spread in their six games by a combined 71 ½ points. Under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the Saints have picked off 13 passes, four of which were returned for touchdowns. Drew Brees has the third-highest quarterback ratings and has thrown for 14 touchdowns. The Saints have gotten more balanced with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combining for 50 carries the past two weeks. New Orleans has covered seven of its last eight games at the Superdome, including defeating Atlanta, 29-25, last December. The Saints are 18-5 against the spread the past 23 times they’ve been favored.
The Over is 11-2-1 in the Saints’ last 14 games as a home favorite.
The Over is 15-5-1 in the Saints’ last 21 home contests.
Key Injuries - Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) is out.
Linebacker Scott Fujita (calf) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 33
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Why Broncos cover: They're 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Kyle Orton has done a great job protecting the ball and has only one interception this season. Broncos are 15-5 all-time after a bye week.
Why Ravens cover: Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Combo of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee are averaging 5.4 yards per carry and make it hard for defenses to key on one player.
Total (41.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (+3.5)
Why Texans cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games. Bills are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. Buffalo has struggled to cover tight ends all season and Houston has one of the best in Owen Daniels.
Why Bills cover: They have won the last two meetings. They're 2-0 ATS and straight up with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. Texans' top receiver Andre Johnson is dealing with a bruised lung that could hamper his effectiveness.
Total (40.5): Under is 5-1 in Texans' last six road games and 5-1 in Bills' last six home games.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-13.5)
Why Browns cover: They have won three of the past four meetings. Jay Cutler is going through a rough stretch where he has turned over the ball six times in his last two games - both losses. Bears are vulnerable on the ground, allowing almost four yards per carry.
Why Bears cover: They're 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. It doesn't matter who is at QB for Cleveland, they can't pass the ball. Browns are averaging 7.3 points per game away from home this season and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
Total (39.5): Under is 4-1-1 in Browns' last six road games.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Why Seahawks cover: They have won four of the past six meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Dallas has the NFL's 22nd-ranked defense.
Why Cowboys cover: Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings. Tony Romo dismantled the Seahawks last year, throwing for 331 yards and three scores. With 440 yards and four TDs, receiver Miles Austin has responded well to being Romo's go-to-guy. Seattle will be without Lofa Tatupu who has a chest injury.
Total (45): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (N/A)
Why Rams cover: They're 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Lions will be without Calvin Johnson who has a knee injury. This could be their best chance to notch a win this season and avoid becoming the second winless team in as many years.
Why Lions cover: They have won four of the past six meetings. Could get Matthew Stafford back from his knee injury. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Kevin Smith could roll up big yardage on a Rams team allowing over 135 yards per game on the ground.
Total (N/A): Under is 4-1 in Lions' last five home games.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)
Why 49ers cover: They're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have won seven of the last nine meetings with Indy. Former first-overall pick, Alex Smith, was spectacular in place of Shaun Hill last week and will get the start against the Colts. Reggie Wayne could be slowed by a groin injury.
Why Colts cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games, all victories. They have only given up two sacks all season, giving Peyton Manning plenty of time to pick apart defenses.
Total (44): Under is 6-2-1 in 49ers' last nine games on turf.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5)
Why Dolphins cover: Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Jets will be without Leon Washington, who was lost for the season. Wildcat offense baffled New York in Week 5, a 31-27 victory.
Why Jets cover: They have won eight of the last 11 meetings. Dolphins are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 meetings and 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New York. With Will Allen suffering a season-ending injury last week, Miami will start two rookie cornerbacks Sunday.
Total (40.5): Under is 6-1 in Dolphins' last seven road games.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Why Giants cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Philadelphia. Underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Eagles are likely to be without Brian Westbrook who has a concussion.
Why Eagles cover: Eli Manning (48.5 completion percentage, five turnovers) has struggled in his last two games and could continue his slump versus Philly's seventh-ranked defense. Donovan McNabb has thrown seven TDs to only one interception is his last five games against New York.
Total (44): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Why Jaguars cover: Have won three of past four meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker should easily dominate a Titans defense that is allowing a whopping 310 yards through the air per game.
Why Titans cover: Team owner is pushing for Vince Young to start over Kerry Collins (62 percent rating) who has been terrible all season. Jacksonville could be without top cornerback Rashean Mathis who has a broken finger. Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Tennessee.
Total (44.5): Over is 4-1 in Jaguars' last five games and 4-1 in Titans' last five games.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-16.5)
Why Raiders cover: League's 12th-best pass defense could limit Phillip Rivers and Co., forcing the Chargers to run the ball - something they are second to last in the NFL at doing. Out-played San Diego in their season opener, covering as 10-point underdogs.
Why Chargers cover: They have won 12 straight meetings. Raiders will stick with JaMarcus Russell at QB despite his benching last week. Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Raiders are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in San Diego
Total (41.5): Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in San Diego.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10)
Why Panthers cover: They have won five of the past six meetings. Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Arizona struggles to run the ball which will give Julius Peppers and the Panthers' top-rated pass defense a chance to key in on Kurt Warner.
Why Cardinals cover: They're 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. NFL best run defense could force Jake Delhomme, who is on the verge of losing his starting job, to try and beat them with his arm. Larry Fitzgerald has 440 yards receiving with two TDs in his last four games against the Panthers.
Total (42.5): Over is 12-4 in Cardinals' last 16 home games and 6-1 in Panthers' last seven road games.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Why Vikings cover: They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Green Bay. Brett Favre will make his first return to Lambeau Field as an opposing player. Favre beat Green Bay in Week 4 (and also covered), tossing 271 yards and three TDs. Road team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Underdog is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Why Packers cover: They have won six of the last seven meetings. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Aaron Rodgers is one of the NFL's top ranked QBs and should have success against the Vikings' 19th-ranked pass defense, especially with cornerback Antoine Winfield out.
Total (47): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-10)
Why Falcons cover: Michael Turner could batter a Saints' defensive line is already banged up. After a slow start, Roddy White has caught fire totaling 316 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games. Matt Ryan has thrown for 563 yards with four total TDs in his last two games against New Orleans.
Why Saints cover: They have won five of the last six meetings. Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans. Drew Brees is 5-1 against Atlanta since joining the Saints.
Total (54): Over is 15-5-1 in Saints' last 21 home games and 19-7-1 in their last 27 games overall.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total bias: NFL Week 8 over/under plays
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So just how good are double-digit favorites in the NFL?
In one word: Amazing.
Favorites of 10 points or more have done such a great job at lighting up their opponents, matchups featuring one of these pointspread juggernauts have topped the number in 12 of 17 such games this year. Teams like the Saints and Giants don’t just win - they punish their opponents and leave no hope for a last-second comeback.
Every dog might have its day, but underdogs still are looking for a Sunday to call their own this season.
Double-digit favorites are a staggering 16-1 SU and an equally impressive 11-6 ATS this year. The reason for the dominance is simple – the best teams in the NFL simply are taking care of business week in and week out.
And it’s not even close. The average margin of victory in a game featuring a double-digit favorite is an absurd 17.2 points.
Happen to look at the Week 8 schedule?
That’s right. There are a staggering five games featuring double-digit favorites as of Thursday night. These games are: Cleveland at Chicago (-14.5), San Francisco at Indianapolis (-11.5), Oakland at San Diego (-16.5), Carolina at Arizona (-10) and Atlanta at New Orleans (-10).
Books continue to adjust for the huge disparity in quality of teams this season, typically pumping out lines around +9 or 9.5 each week, but the smart money is on the favorites and their ability to light up the scoreboard.
So now, we have to break down these games and figure out which ones we trust to pass the total. The Saints almost went south faster than a weeknight trip to a strip club in Miami last week, but pulled together to post a convincing win over the Dolphins and easily push their score over the total.
Chicago showed earlier this season it can score and it demonstrated it could be scored on last week - by the Bengals. The Bears might try to win ugly, but with the defense struggling along, they will play several high-scoring games before the end of the year.
Finally, let’s tap the San Francisco at Indianapolis game. The 49ers have fallen apart faster than Lindsay Lohan, giving up a total of 69 points the past two weeks and swapping quarterback Shaun Hill for Alex Smith. That’s like dumping Roseanne Barr to get with Rosie O’Donnell. Ugh. Peyton Manning could pick the score.
So let’s stay away from an Arizona team traveling back across the country that has started to win with defense and a San Diego team that apparently is still is coached by Norv Turner. Steer clear of those two traps and let’s take a closer look at our picks for this week.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Saints proved last week, even after a slow start, they are a virtual lock for 35 points no matter where they play. And Atlanta could barley slow down a pedestrian Dallas attack last Sunday. I don’t even think the Falcons could slow down New Orleans with 12 men on defense.
But with the total set so high, Atlanta also needs to score. And they will. Quarterback Matt Ryan has the tools to put up points and is content with a ball-control game. That’s just what the Saints should give him, allowing him to methodically march down the field and put points on the board – just not touchdowns or at least not long plays.
Slow and steady is the key for this NFC South clash.
Pick: Over 54.5
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
The 49ers defense is more suspect than a bible study group at Spring Break. Peyton Manning will pick that group apart so bad that they will need to pray for any kind of help as the points keep piling up. San Francisco will have no choice but to blitz and we all know how that ends: Reggie Wayne racing down the sideline with reservations for six.
On offense, San Francisco is about as exciting as oral surgery. Frank Gore up the middle. Gore off-tackle. Jump ball to a streaking Vernon Davis. It doesn’t matter who plays quarterback for this group, the play calls will be the same and net about 10-14 points – just enough to take care of business.
Pick: Over 45
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
So what if the Browns have scored just six touchdowns – a horrendous four on offense – and look more lost than Perez Hilton at a Republican Party meeting? They are officially “frisky” with Derek Anderson under center, scoring 14 points in Pittsburgh last week.
The Bears, who were decimated in Cincinnati last Sunday, are looking to make a statement at home. On offense they should have no problem against the Browns, but the team’s defense and special teams are wild cards – they could score points or give them up, fast. Either way, it’s points on the board and a step closer to topping the number.
Pick: Over 40
Last week: 1-2
This season: 8-13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL – News and Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, November 1
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3, 47.5)
Round 2
It was only a month ago that Brett Favre became the first quarterback in league history to beat all 32 NFL teams when leading the Vikings to a 30-23 win over the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites. Favre now returns to Green Bay for the first time to face his old team in what promises to be an emotionally-charged division battle.
The Vikings took Round 1 despite being outgained by the Packers 424-334. That was due in large part to a pair of Packers’ turnovers and a monster Minnesota pass rush that sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times.
Hold that line
The Vikings (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) boast the league’s best pass rush with 24 sacks this season. Defensive end Jared Allen was virtually unstoppable in these teams first matchup as he had 4.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a safety. He figures to be licking his chops once again as the Packers’ offensive line, which ranks 31st with 25 sacks allowed, remains in flux.
Starting left tackle Chad Clifton is continuing to battle an ankle injury, which could leave rookie T.J. Lang to start in his place for the second straight game. There is also uncertainty at center as Jason Spitz deals with a lower-back injury that could keep him sidelined.
On the flip side, the Packers pass rush was anemic in Minnesota. Green Bay (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) barely got any pressure on Favre, who was 24-of-31 for 271 and three touchdowns. He did not throw an interception, wasn’t sacked and, in fact, was barely even touched.
Despite the lack of pass rush, Packers’ defensive coordinator Dom Capers indicated there won’t be more blitz packages dialed up this time to pressure Favre.
“We could go out and blitz every down and probably hit Brett Favre,” Capers said. “But our chance of winning the game, I think, goes down.”
Capers said it wasn’t necessarily the lack of pass rush that did in the Packers, but instead focused on third-down defense, making stops in the redzone and limiting big plays.
The Vikings were 8-of-14 on third down, perfect in the redzone and 123 of their 334 yards of total offense came on four plays, all passes.
Rounding into form
The Packers have reeled off consecutive wins by a combined score of 59-3 since their loss to the Vikings. However, those wins did come against two of the league’s worst teams in Cleveland and Detroit. The beleaguered Packers’ offensive line does have something to build on as it did not allow a sack to the Browns - the first time that has happened this year.
“They’re going to need to carry over the same kind of confidence they had against Cleveland into this game and hopefully be able to give me some time,” Rodgers told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. “Personally, I need to get the ball out of my hands as quickly as possible to get it to our playmakers and let them do their job.”
The Vikings are coming off their first straight-up loss of the season, a 27-17 setback at Pittsburgh as 6-point underdogs.
More injuries
Vikings’ Pro Bowl cornerback Antoine Winfield was ruled out for the second consecutive week because of a foot injury. He will be replaced in the defensive backfield by the three-man committee of Karl Paymah, Asher Allen and Benny Sapp, each of whom played well vs. the Steelers last week, Vikings’ coaches said.
"It's hard to replace a Pro Bowl corner in our league that does all the things that Antoine does for our defense, but it was great to see Paymah, Asher and Benny step in and play the way they played," defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier told the Associated Press. "We are going to need it again this week."
Receiver Bernard Berrian (hamstring) was listed as questionable as was Percy Harvin, who returned to practice Friday after missing work the previous day.
The big news on the injury front for the Packers is the status of starting tight end Jermichael Finley, who is doubtful. The second-year pro caught six balls for 128 yards and a touchdown in these teams first matchup. He did not practice this week but could still see game action, according to coaches.
“Jermichael is unique,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the Green Bay Press-Gazette. “I think we all recognize that as far as the matchup opportunities that he gives you, which was evident in the game up there in Minnesota.”
Line movement
The Packers have held steady as 3-point favorites, but the total has been bet down to 47 at most shops after opening at 48.5.
Weather
The forecast for Green Bay calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 48 degrees. Showers are set to arrive later in the evening.
Trends
The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss….4-1 ATS in their last five road game…7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Green Bay.
The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite…8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC North.
The Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Green Bay.
Monday, November 2
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-11, 55)
Line movement
The Saints opened as 9-point favorites. The line has moved all the way to -11 and some offshore shops have it listed as high as -11.5. The total has been moved up to 55 most everywhere after opening at 53.5.
On the flip side
While it’s been the New Orleans’ high-octane offense that’s garnered most of the headlines this season, and deservingly so, the defensive unit has played nearly as big a role in the Saints perfect 6-0 start.
The Saints’ ‘D,’ led by safety Darren Sharper, has feasted on big plays this season. The group has forced 18 turnovers (tied for the league high) and scored six touchdowns. Three of those scores were registered by Sharper, who has six interceptions overall.
“That (turnover) statistic is one area that’s glaringly different for all of us. It has helped us a bunch as a team,” Saints’ coach Sean Payton told the Associated Press. “You hear each week talk about this Saints team scoring 39 points per game, and I think the myth initially is that the offense is scoring all those points. The reality of it is that there are turnovers involved in there. There’s a lot that goes into a number like that that can get skewed. So the takeaways have been significant.”
The Saints’ ball-hawking defense could be in for another big day. The Falcons have been struggling with turnovers of late. Quarterback Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and had two fumbles - losing one - in the Falcons’ 37-21 loss in Dallas last weekend. Ryan is coming off consecutive games with at least two interceptions for the first time in his young career.
“Any time you lose the turnover battle in this league, it’s tough to come back and win games.” Ryan said. “So that’s my focus this week, to be better with the football, but at the same time you can’t lose that aggressiveness. You have to continue to go out there and try to make plays.”
Injuries
The Saints will be without two significant contributors. Fullback Heath Evans was placed on injured reserve this week because of a torn ACL and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is also out because of a knee injury.
Evans has been a key blocker in the Saints’ running game, which ranks third in the NFL. He also had three touchdowns, two coming on short receptions near the goal line.
“He’s to date really played well for us both in the running game and the passing game,” Payton said. “You never like to lose a starter. It will be up to the rest of these guys at the tight end position, fullback position, potentially one of our halfbacks to take over that role, but it does change what you’ve been accustomed to with the starter that’s out.”
The Falcons have been hard hit by injuries, especially in the offensive backfield and along the defensive line. Jerious Norwood, who backs up Michael Turner at tailback, is expected to miss a second straight game because of a hip flexor.
Jason Snelling, who filled Norwood’s backup spot last week and responded with 68 yards on seven carries against the Cowboys, has been limited this week because of a hamstring injury and may not play.
Fullback Ovie Mughelli has also been limited at practice this week after missing the previous two games with a calf injury.
“Well, we are not going to make excuses, but we like to have our first-line players out there,” said Falcons’ coach Mike Smith. “I think Ovie is an outstanding blocking back and in our two-back running game he’s a big, big part of it.”
As for the defensive line, starters John Abraham (foot), Jonathan Babineaux (ankle) and Thomas Johnson (calf) are all listed as questionable. Kroy Biermann was also added to the injury report late in the week because of a neck injury.
Head-to-head
These teams split their two meetings last year. Atlanta covered as 1-point home favorites 34-20 in November and the Saints came back a month later to avenge the loss with a 29-25 home win as 3-point favorites. Both games went over the listed total.
Trends
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win. The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
The over is 10-3 in the Falcons last 13 games following a straight-up loss. The over is 11-2-1 in the Saints last 14 games as a home favorite.
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
WAGER INFORMATION
